Image via Complex Original
President Barack Obama is soon going to be former president Barack Obama.
While he still has about 600 more days in office, candidates for America's next Commander-in-Chief aren't waiting around for others to build momentum. Running for political office is (unfortunately) a game of time and money, and even though we're a year and a half out from the election, one politician has already announced his candidacy. Expect a bunch more to come out of the woodwork in the coming months to gun for the highest seat in the nation when it's up for grabs in November 2016.
Already, though, things are looking a little lopsided—that's because Democrats have taken a backseat over the last few years when it comes to producing household names, and many of their candidates are the same people who've been tossed around as candidates over the last decade. Republicans have far more candidates who've been preparing for a shot at the presidency, since as far back as President Obama's first term. (While there's a good dozen Republican candidates who may campaign, we featured the most significant ones who might actually have a shot at the ticket). One notable person who won't be running is Mitt Romney, who lost the 2012 election to President Obama.
So, who are the leading people to become a nominee for the Democratic and Republican tickets next year? The landscape is starting to take shape, and one of these people is likely to become the next POTUS.
Rand Paul
Party: Republican
Age: 52
Paul (who wasn't named "Rand" after author and libertarian Ayn Rand, by the way) is the son of the popular former congressman Ron Paul, who tried to run for president a few times. He's currently a Senator from Kentucky, and a practicing opthamologist, specializing in LASIK and cataract surgeries.
He's probably the most social media savvy of potential Republican candidates, and is known to troll rivals on Twitter from time to time. Considering his Internet presence, Paul is trying to appeal to young Republicans in the same way Obama rallied young Democrats, and he already seems to have a growing audience of millennials.
The same old candidates running for President #ThingsToRunFrom pic.twitter.com/MIljwji097
— Senator Rand Paul (@SenRandPaul) January 28, 2015
Paul has a reputation for having good working relationships with members of both major parties, and has been labeled a libertarian. He's pro-life, and shares a lot of conservative values, but he's penned an essay called "We Must Demilitarize the Police," and he's against NSA's mass surveillance techniques—which falls in line with the thinking of most Democrats. He says marijuana users shouldn't be put in jail; favors not deporting the 11 million undocumented immigrants already here; calls accepting gay marriage a "moral crisis;" and recently changed his views on defense spending. While he pledged to slow down the amount of money spent on defense while running for Senator, Paul recently introduced an amendment to add $76 billion of the defense budget.
Also, if Paul wins the nomination and picks Paul Ryan as his running mate, the ticket will be "Paul-Ryan 2016." Haaaaa.
Odds of Party's Nomination: 1-3 (75%)
Ted Cruz
Party: Republican
Age: 44
When the Canadian born Cruz—who's the first Cuban-American to serve as a Senator from Texas—announced his candidacy in mid-March, Twitter welcomed the news with the hashtag #TedCruzCampaignSlogans, which wasn't the best look for Cruz's first day as a candidate.
Yet Cruz is packing when it comes to his educational background. He graduated cum laude from Princeton University with a Bachelor of Arts in Public Policy, and magnum cum laude from Harvard Law School in 1995, where he founded the Harvard Latino Law Review.
He served as an advisor on the Bush campaign in 2000, and became the Solicitor General of Texas in 2003. He was later elected to the U.S. Senate in 2012 during an election where he was considered a big underdog, and has since championed conservative values—he's considered far more right wing than many of the other potential candidates. Cruz is pro-life except when the mother's life could be in danger; opposes legalizing marijuana but thinks states should be able to decide, opposes gay marriage but defers to the states, doesn't support legalizing undocumented immigrants; doesn't believe climate change is a problem; opposes net neutrality, and defends gun rights.
He once led a 21-hour-long filibuster, the fourth longest in Senate history, and is one of the main reasons behind the government shutdown in 2013. During CPAC (Conservative Political Action Conference) in February, Cruz said he'd repeal Obamacare, get rid of the IRS, and stop "out of control regulators" like the Environmental Protection Agency, if he were president.
Cruz is in charge of the committee that controls NASA's budget, and recently had an exchange with a NASA chief over the mission of the agency—which Cruz thought shouldn't include monitoring climate change. Here's how that went down:
He most recently signed the letter to Iran that attempted to undermine the U.S.-Iran nuclear deal. He also, ironically, signed up for Obamacare.
Likelihood of Party's Nomination: 3-2 (40%)
Marco Rubio
Party: Republican
Age: 43
A young U.S. Senator from Florida, Rubio is one of three Latinos in the U.S. Senate. He served in the Florida House of Representatives for close to 10 years, before being elected Senator in 2010. Rubio is the author of the books, 100 Innovative Ideas for Florida's Future,An American Son, andAmerican Dreams, taught a political science class at Florida International University, and holds a law degree from the University of Miami.
While Rubio is of Cuban descent, the family story he's told on the campaign trail was revealed to have some holes in it. He's a climate change denier (he believes passing policies to fight climate change would destroy the economy), and was also one of the first politicians to call President Obama a "socialist." Rubio's voted against an expansion on background checks for guns, he's against abortion rights, and opposes gay marriage. You also might remember him from this classic moment during the Republican response to the 2013 State of the Union:
When asked if he was ready to become president by ABC, Rubio said, “I do … but I think that’s true for multiple other people that would want to run … I mean, I’ll be 43 this month, but the other thing that perhaps people don’t realize, I’ve served now in public office for the better part of 14 years. Most importantly, I think a president has to have a clear vision of where the country needs to go and clear ideas about how to get it there and I think we’re very blessed in our party to have a number of people that fit that criteria."
Likelihood of Party's Nomination: 6-5 (45%)
Chris Christie
Party: Republican
Age: 52
Christie is a former lawyer, and was appointed the U.S. Attorney for the District of New Jersey in 2001 by President Bush (he was told of the appointment a day before 9/11), and became governor in January 2010. While he once was considered a strong contender for the Republican nomination, the New Jersey governor's credibility took a hard hit thanks to #BridgeGate and his relationship with President Obama in the weeks after Hurricane Sandy—which Republicans weren't fond of seeing, though his response to Sandy increased his approval rating with New Jersey citizens.
Despite his criticisms, for a short while, Christie was seen as a cool guy on both sides of the aisle, especially after his handling of the storm. The biggest scandal of his administration was the George Washington Bridge closures in September 2013, when a senior aide of his, along with two political appointees, intentionally created traffic jams for four days on the bridge to get back at the mayor of Fort Lee, NJ. Though, after an investigation, it's believed that Christie did not know about the closures beforehand.
He's against gay marriage but has voiced support for civil unions and allowing states to vote; outlawed gay conversion therapy; withdrew New Jersey from a plan to limit carbon emissions; doesn't support legalizing marijuana; supported the DREAM Act; and flipped from being pro-choice to pro-life after he heard his daughter's heartbeat while she was still in the womb. Other fun facts: he was nicknamed "Big Boy" by President Bush after Christie helped raise funds during Bush's first presidential campaign, and he's a Bruce Springsteen fanatic.
Likelihood of Party's Nomination: 19-10 (35%)
Ben Carson
Party: Republican
Age: 63
Carson, now retired, is the first surgeon to have successfully separated conjoined twins who were attached at the head, which earned him the Presidential Medal of Freedom. He's also a published author, having written more than six books, including: Gifted Hands (Cuba Gooding, Jr. played him in the TV adaptation), Think Big, The Big Picture, Take the Risk, America the Beautiful, and One Nation. The dude has some talent. When he gave the keynote speech at the National Prayer Breakfast in 2013, he showcased his conservative views and became a prominent force in the political world—even though he's never held office.
He's admitted he's in the "One-Percent," is against the legalization of recreational marijuana (he believes it's a gateway drug) but seems OK with medical usage, wants to repeal Obamacare, opposes gay marriage, and once said that he believes homosexuality is a choice (just look at prisons). But he also believes that semi-automatic weapons should have more regulation.
Carson with Cuba for the TV adaptation of "Gifted Hands," via TV Guide.
He's also one of the only major black candidates, from either party, headed into 2016. While he has the looks, credentials, and the views to get the Republican nomination, his lack of political experience in office might hold him back, and he'll probably get ripped in the primaries for it.
Likelihood of Party's Nomination: 3-to-1 (25%)
Jeb Bush
Party: Republican
Age: 62
You know the name, but you might not know the man. Jeb is the younger brother of President George W. Bush, and a former two-term governor of Florida (yes, the same state that decided the 2000 Gore v. Bush election). Jeb has a good chance at becoming the Republican nominee, and he's making moves now, though he hasn't announced his candidacy.
He most recently released a large batch of emails that he sent and received during his governorship in an attempt to appear transparent—but it backfired since a few of the emails contained the addresses, phone numbers, and social security numbers of the people that sent them. Ouch. Bush has supported overhauling immigration laws, and has a good relationship with the Latino community in Florida. (He speaks Spanish fluently.) He's also credited with making moves to save the environment and reform the education system. For a Republican, he's moderate, but it might be hard for some in his party to see that he's the best chance for them to win 2016.
Sadly, the one thing holding him back might be his older brother's rep. Oh, and Ludacris making this joke after meeting him in March:
As he is leaving statehouse, Ludacris is asked which Bush is his favorite. His response: "The one outside." #gapol pic.twitter.com/7tCh12qiOc
— Greg Bluestein (@bluestein) March 19, 2015
Likelihood of Party's Nomination: 9-50 (85%)
Scott Walker
Party: Republican
Age: 47
Walker, the governor of Wisconsin since 2011, made a name of himself in his first year in office thanks to a fiscally conservative budget proposal that aimed to remove collective bargaining rights from state workers. It was a huge controversy, and Walker was slammed almost every night on news programs for it, but it also made him a popular figure in the GOP even if he was feeling the heat.
What's impressive is that despite Wisconsin residents tossing Walker into a recall election a year later, he won it—which made him the first governor in U.S. history to win a recall election (which makes him the most popular unpopular governor of all time?). That momentum made him a natural candidate for Mitt Romney's running mate in 2012, but he declined even being a potential pick, and said he'd suggest Paul Ryan instead of himself—and Romney did end up choosing Ryan.
Walker's defended Wisconsin's ban on same-sex marriage but he's been a little indecisive on the issue recently; he's opposed restrictions on firearms; doesn't support giving undocumented immigrants amnesty but doesn't support a mass deportation, and endorses a pathway to citizenship. He hasn't announced if he's running for the presidency yet, but he has set up a committee to spread his political message, which would benefit someone running for president.
Likelihood of Party's Nomination: 6-5 (45%)
Jim Webb
Party: Democrat
Age: 69
Webb served one term as a Senator from Virginia from 2006 to 2013, before he retired. He had a pretty interesting life before getting into politics: he left USC after a year to join the US Naval Academy, and went on to serve in the Marines after graduating in 1968—where he was sent to Vietnam as a second lieutenant. He earned a Navy Cross, two Purple hearts, the Silver Star and two Bronze Stars. Webb became a journalist in the following years, and won an Emmy for his coverage in Beirut, and went to Afghanistan in 2004 as a reporter.
While he's a Democrat, he's walks on the edge when it comes on certain issues. He leans conservative when it comes to gun rights, immigration, climate change, and race-based affirmative action programs.
He formed an exploratory committee last November to see if he should seek the presidency, and he said that this time around, Democrats "... could do better with white, working people and I think this last election showed that."
Likelihood of Party's Nomination: 9-to-1 (10%)
Joe Biden
Party: Democrat
Age: 72
Joe went against then-Senator Obama in 2008 for the presidency, so running again for the seat would be a natural next step—if not for a certain former first lady on this list. "I can die a happy man never having been president of the United States of America," he said. "But it doesn't mean I won't run."
Biden has been known as a gaffe machine both before and during the Obama Administration. A few highlights from over the years: he was heard saying "This is a big f*cking deal" to President Obama during the health care bill's signing ceremony; Biden made a joke about Supreme Court Justice John Roberts flubbing the lines during President Obama's inauguration, and Obama had to tap him on the back to let him know he was dissatisfied; he suggested that Hillary Clinton would make a better Vice President than him; and he's been known to be a little touchy-feely with the ladies.
Oh, and he once asked a wheelchair-bound man to stand up:
But Biden has a bit of a tragic past. His wife and year-old daughter were killed in a car accident on December 18, 1972, and he doesn't work on that date in remembrance of his wife and child. Though Biden may have what it takes to get the ticket, he probably won't be able to win the election against Bush or Rand.
Likelihood of Party's Nomination: Even (50%)
Elizabeth Warren
Party: Democrat
Age: 65
Warren is one of the biggest threats to every candidate—but that's only if she runs. As of now, that's looking like it ain't happening. The former Harvard Law School professor was named by Boston Globe as "Bostonian of the Year" in 2009 due to her work to monitor the $700 billion bank bailout effort.
She later helped design the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, was an assistant to President Obama, and was elected a U.S. Senator from Massachusetts in 2012. During her Senate campaign, she ran into controversy for claiming she was part Cherokee without being able to document it. "Growing up, my mother and grandparents often talked about our family's Native American heritage," she responded. "As a kid, I never thought to ask them for documentation—what kid would?"
Warren's extremely popular with progressives for her ability to "tell it like it is." She recently wrote a book about her life—just like President Obama did before his presidential campaign—but said she isn't going to run for president (though Obama also said the same thing just two years before he won national election). So, it ain't over until it's over.
She favors legalizing medical marijuana but not recreational; is pro-choice; opposes repealing Obamacare; supports a pathway to citizenship for undocumented immigrants; supports gay marriage; and is for tightened restrictions on gun ownership. Warren also says she created much of the intellectual foundation to the Occupy Wall Street movement.
Likelihood of Party's Nomination (if she runs): 1-3 (60%)
Julián Castro
Party: Democrat
Age: 40
Julian was the mayor of San Antonio, Texas, for three terms until he was made the secretary of Housing and Urban Development by President Obama last year. Don't be confused if you see him doing other things, though, because it's not actually him: he has an identical twin brother, Joaquín Castro, in the United States House of Representatives.
Julián attended Stanford, where he first got into politics by running for a student senate seat. He graduated with a degree in political science and communications, and credits affirmative action with helping him get into the school. “Joaquín and I got into Stanford because of affirmative action,” Julián told the NY Times. “I scored 1,210 on my SATs, which was lower than the median matriculating student. But I did fine in college and in law school. So did Joaquín. I’m a strong supporter of affirmative action because I’ve seen it work in my own life.” He later went on to Harvard Law School.
Castro has a memoir coming out later this year (which seems to be a must if you're going to make a run at the presidency). He first received national attention when he delivered a speech at the Democratic National Convention in 2012. A former advisor to President George W. Bush said that Castro has the best chance to be the first Hispanic POTUS. While he may make a run at the presidency, he more likely will end up being a vice-presidential candidate for the pending nominee.
He supports affirmative action, granting legal residency to DREAMers, he's pro-choice, and is for gay marriage.
Likelihood of Party's Nomination: 9-to-1 (10%)
Martin O'Malley
Party: Democrat
Age: 52
Who the hell is Martin O'Malley? That's his first problem. The governor of Maryland and former mayor of Baltimore (who was a slight inspiration for the character Mayor Tommy Carcetti in The Wire), isn't a nationally recognized name yet, even if Esquire named him "The Best Young Mayor in the Country" in 2002, and Time magazine named him one of America's "Top 5 Big City Mayors" in 2005.
As governor, he legalized same-sex marriage in Maryland, repealed the death penalty for future offenders, and signed a law to allow some undocumented immigrants (who he called "new Americans") to receive in-state tuition. But he was later criticized when an influx of children from South America showed up at the U.S. border, and he refused open a facility to house them.
He recently said Democrats shouldn't nominate Hillary Clinton because "the presidency of the United States is not some crown to be passed between two families."
Likelihood of Party's Nomination: 3-2 (40%)
Hillary Clinton
Party: Democrat
Age: 67
Of course, Hillary. What happens during the next year will be the culmination of an almost two-decade long journey to get her into the White House. As of today, she's the favorite to win the presidency come 2016, thanks to a lackluster field of candidates from both sides of the aisle. The former First Lady became a Senator from New York in 2001, becoming the only American First Lady to hold national office, and served until 2009. President Obama nominated her to replace Condoleezza Rice as Secretary of State later that year, and she resigned in 2013.
During her time as Secretary of State, Republicans criticized her and the State Department for the attacks in Benghazi, Libya, where U.S. ambassador Christopher Stevens and three others were killed in 2012. An independent panel found that, under Clinton's leadership, there were "systematic failures and leadership and management deficiencies" at the State Department during the attack.
She was recently the subject of a Harper's cover story that dived into a number of questionable moments in her past that might make her unfit for the presidency, such as the Whitewater real estate scandal. Before that, she was called out by Michael Moore in his documentary Sicko, as being the second-highest recipient of campaign donations from the healthcare industry, during a time when she was appointed to the Task Force on National Health Reform. Most recently she was criticized for using her own personal email over the course of her stay as Secretary of State.
Clinton leans more for legalizing marijuana than not; she backed President Obama's immigration overhaul in November; she's for more gun control; and though she once opposed it, she now backs gay marriage (even if it might only be for political reasons).
Likelihood of Party's Nomination: 1-10 (90%)